outrightArb
Netanyahu out by...?
+99.80% profit
Live
AI Value Picks
Mathematically-backed recommendations with positive expected value — powered by prediction market analysis and Kelly criterion sizing.
Updated: Friday, April 24, 2026
7
Total Picks
+81.9%
Avg EV
$350.00
Total Staked
$286.64
Expected Profit
Arbitrage Opportunities
73 risk-free arbs detected across 919 events
outrightArb
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
+28.37% profit
outrightArb
Presidential Election Winner 2028
+24.61% profit
Today's Picks
9 positive-EV opportunities identified
footballUpcoming
Deportivo Riestra vs Independiente
+349.1% EV
Recommended Bet
Deportivo Riestra
Odds
7.05x
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$352.50
Confidence
63%
Confidence Score63/100
footballUpcoming
Cercle Brugge vs Dender
+83.5% EV
Odds
1.41x
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$70.50
Confidence
70%
Confidence Score70/100
footballUpcoming
Leicester vs Millwall
+74.3% EV
Odds
4.20x
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$210.00
Confidence
58%
Confidence Score58/100
footballUpcoming
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Rosario Central
+66.0% EV
Recommended Bet
Rosario Central
Odds
2.05x
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$102.50
Confidence
81%
Confidence Score81/100
footballUpcoming
Al-Hazm vs Al Riyadh
+34.8% EV
Recommended Bet
Al-Hazm
Odds
1.80x
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$90.00
Confidence
74%
Confidence Score74/100
footballUpcoming
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat
+34.4% EV
Recommended Bet
Al-Fateh
Odds
2.14x
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$107.00
Confidence
62%
Confidence Score62/100
footballUpcoming
Lanus vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
+34.4% EV
Recommended Bet
Lanus
Odds
1.54x
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$77.00
Confidence
87%
Confidence Score87/100
footballUpcoming
Napoli vs Cremonese
+31.1% EV
Recommended Bet
Napoli
Odds
1.33x
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$66.50
Confidence
98%
Confidence Score98/100
footballUpcoming
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens
+23.4% EV
Recommended Bet
Lens
Odds
1.69x
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$84.50
Confidence
73%
Confidence Score73/100
Our Methodology
How we identify and size high-EV opportunities
How We Calculate EV
Expected Value is computed as:
EV = (AI Prob × Decimal Odds) − 1
Our AI assigns probabilities by aggregating prediction market signals, on-chain data, and historical performance, then compares them to the market-implied price to surface edge.
Stake Sizing
Stakes are sized using the Half-Kelly Criterion — the mathematically optimal formula for bankroll growth while limiting drawdown risk.
f = (bp − q) / b × 0.5
Half-Kelly halves the theoretically optimal bet fraction, reducing variance and protecting your bankroll during model uncertainty.
Confidence Score
A 0–100 score reflecting the model's certainty in its probability estimate. Higher is better.
- Data quality and completeness
- Prediction market liquidity
- Model agreement across indicators
AI-powered analysis
Polymarket data
Updated daily
Kelly Criterion sizing
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. These picks are generated by an AI model and are provided for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. Prediction markets and sports betting carry inherent risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.