Who Are the Dark Horses for the 2026 World Cup?

The 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams, meaning dark horses are more likely to draw weaker opponents in the group stage and can build momentum without immediately facing elite opposition. With 104 matches versus 64 in 2022, more games means more variance, more upsets, and more routes for a well-organized side to reach the later rounds. Morocco's 2022 semifinal run — the template every dark horse now follows — benefited from a favorable draw. The 48-team format structurally amplifies that possibility.

If Cristiano Ronaldo plays at 41, the narrative alone could carry Portugal deep into the tournament. Ronaldo's hunger for a World Cup title — the one major trophy still missing from his collection — is unmatched. Portugal's squad beyond Ronaldo is genuinely strong: Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Rúben Dias, Gonçalo Ramos. However, over-reliance on a 41-year-old carries real fitness risk across a 7-game campaign. The narrative is compelling; the execution is uncertain.

Nigeria, Senegal, and Morocco are building on the momentum of 2022, when Morocco became the first African team to reach a World Cup semifinal. Nigeria's 2023 AFCON run demonstrated tactical evolution and a new generation of Premier League-based talent including Victor Osimhen (when fit) and Ademola Lookman. Africa now receives 9 spots in the 48-team format (up from 5), reducing the gauntlet of qualification pressure and giving African squads more tournament experience. If any continent produces a historic shock in 2026, it is Africa.

Netherlands, Croatia, and Belgium all possess squads capable of deep semifinal runs but are chronically underpriced by bettors fixated on Brazil, France, and England. The Netherlands under new management have rebuilt with Cody Gakpo (Liverpool), Xavi Simons (PSG), and a rejuvenated Virgil van Dijk in what may be his last World Cup. Croatia, despite an aging core around Modric, have mechanized tournament preparation better than almost any nation since 2018. Belgium's golden generation is fading but still competitive. All three sit in the 10/1–18/1 range — excellent each-way value.

“Betfair's exchange market reflects sharp money steadily moving into Portugal as Ronaldo's squad depth becomes clearer through 2025-26 qualifying. Netherlands have drifted from 9/1 to 12/1 following a patchy Nations League run, making them arguably the best-value underdog. Betfair's trading team specifically highlights Netherlands as 'structurally underpriced relative to squad quality.'”

Source: Betfair Exchange

“William Hill's African football specialist highlights Nigeria's improved tactical organization under their current setup and the increased African quota in the 48-team format. Nigeria are placed in a manageable continental confederation bracket. At 50/1, even a semifinal run — not inconceivable given 2022 precedents from Morocco — returns exceptional each-way value for speculative bettors.”

Source: William Hill / Evoke

“Oddschecker's aggregate market analysis shows Croatia consistently outperforming their pre-tournament odds in knockout football — 2018 finalists, 2022 third place. Luka Modric at the 2026 World Cup would be 40 years old, potentially in his final tournament. Tournament-hardened, tactically disciplined Croatian sides historically perform better than their squad ranking suggests, and the sportsbook market consistently underweights this experience premium.”

Source: Sky Sports Betting / Oddschecker